April/May Gatti Report

The spring housing market is echoing a familiar pattern from this time last year. In 2025, new tariff policies introduced volatility across stocks, interest rates, and real estate activity, and this year, the ongoing war and aftermath in Iran is creating similar ripple effects, driving oil prices higher and reshaping economic expectations.

Locally, the numbers tell a surprisingly steady real estate story, yet on the ground it feels anything but the same. Inventory is rising, buyer and seller behavior is gradually shifting, and as the spring season winds down, the interaction between these forces will define where the market is headed for the remainder of 2026. For those considering selling and buying, The Gatti Team, powered by Compass—the nation’s #1 brokerage—is here to provide clarity, strategy, and confidence in an evolving landscape.

On a national level, headwinds are becoming more measurable. Mortgage rates have climbed to 6.32% on a 30-year fixed loan, up from 5.98% before strikes on Iran began in February, and March existing home sales fell 3.6%—the lowest level since June 2025.

What makes that figure particularly telling is that it largely reflects contracts signed before the war even started. Analysts had expected 2026 to be a recovery year for housing, but rising rates tied to Federal Reserve uncertainty have disrupted that outlook, leaving many buyers feeling frozen as geopolitical events shift faster than they can respond.

Includes Alamo, Danville, Diablo, and San Ramon

Here in the Greater Danville Area, the parallels to last year are striking. While inventory felt higher at the start of the spring season (February), the broader data suggests our local market is tracking remarkably close to last year across nearly every category:

• Active Detached Listings: 229 this April, compared to 231 last year.
  
• Days on Market: Improved to an average of 30 days versus 38 last year.
  
• Pending Sales: Identical at 82.
  
• Closed Sales: 117 between March and April, compared to 110 last year.
  
• Median Sold Price: $2,087,500, down 6.77% from $2,239,000 in 2025.

The one notable divergence is price; however, the broader data suggests our local market is tracking remarkably close to last year across nearly every category.

The path forward is increasingly tied to how the Iran conflict and its disruption to global oil markets continues to unfold. Energy prices have a long reach, rippling through transportation, construction, groceries, and manufacturing, and sustained disruption tends to embed itself in broader inflation expectations.

Several critical unknowns remain: whether the current price pressures are a temporary shock or something more entrenched, how long American consumers can absorb the strain before pulling back, and what the spillover effects mean for economies far less energy-independent than our own. When inflation expectations rise, Treasury yields tend to follow, and mortgage rates move with them—a chain reaction that quietly but meaningfully erodes buyer purchasing power. How these forces resolve themselves over the coming months will have a direct bearing on where the housing market lands by year’s end.

With this level of uncertainty, having experienced and trusted real estate advisors in your corner is more important than ever. Whether you are considering buying or selling in 2026, The Gatti Team provides the expertise and guidance to help you navigate the market with a clear, thoughtful strategy.

With 14 years of experience serving the Greater Danville area, I bring deep market knowledge and a personalized, strategic approach to every client relationship. As an Associate Broker with Compass, I combine national resources with local expertise to deliver results. I’ve also had the privilege of working alongside my father, Ron Gatti, whose 48 years in local real estate built a strong foundation in this community.

Today, my focus remains on guiding clients with modern strategies, clear communication, and a commitment to success helping you navigate the market with confidence and achieve your real estate goals.